Forecasting 2019

By Chris Keeley
Phoenix Commercial Brokers

Deer Valley Airpark has experienced a tremendous commercial real estate recovery over the last half dozen years, with over 1,200,00 square feet sold in the industrial market over the last three years alone. That’s over $120 million in sales, and the trend has been up every year.

The industrial market trend in the Airpark has been tremendous lately. I remain very optimistic about this market and commercial real estate in general looking forward. Pricing has almost returned to 2007 numbers. New construction averages $140 per square foot. Industrial land is back within 75 percent of previous 2007 pricing.

While being optimistic, projecting 2019 won’t be so simple as following the trend. We may see some slow down simply because of the lack of inventory in this market. The available lease product built over the last few years has kept up with demand but there is almost no new spec construction for purchase recently. Of the +/- 25 new industrial buildings developed for sale since 2016, all have been sold or are currently in escrow. The only available new industrial product in the Deer Valley market currently is at 16th Street and Deer Valley; new industrial buildings for sale, represented by Luke Land. There are a few new buildings currently being planned but won’t be available until late 2019 or early 2020.

The overall market remains strong in Deer Valley Airpark with massive new construction in the residential market North of Happy Valley and West of 19th Avenue to name one. The huge increase in residence in this market will only increase demand for retail, office and industrial product. I anticipate a significant increase in new construction in those areas over the next few years to meet those demands.